Buy when there’s blood in the streets? Bitcoin & geopolitical risk events

What can history tell us?

To identify significant geopolitical events, I have used the data from Caldara & Iacviello (2021), who calculated a daily Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) since 1985 (source:

Table 1: Top 20 Geopolitical Events since July 2010
Table 2: Top 20 geopolitical risk events and Bitcoin performance

Bottom Line

On average, Bitcoin was up 162% after one year (365 days) after a significant geopolitical risk event. In 7 out of 10 cases or 70%, the performance has been positive after one year.



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Avantgarde Digital Research Blog

Avantgarde Digital Research Blog

Leading research on macro themes that move Bitcoin.